U.S. wheat crops wither, herds thin as spring drought deepens

The coming weeks are critical for growers in the Plains, as winter wheat begins to mature ahead of the summer harvest and before other crops are planted. Without sufficient moisture from rainfall or irrigation, wheat shoots struggle to fill out and produce grain. Some farmers will allow cattle to graze fields instead of attempting to harvest grain.

“We’ve got a lot of modern precedent for these very rough conditions heading into the spring growing season, but this certainly ranks up there with some of the worst we’ve seen,” said Brad Rippey, a meteorologist for the US Department of Agriculture.

Though periodic rains have rolled through parts of the Plains this spring, the region as a whole remains unusually dry after a La Niña winter, marked by low snow and record-breaking warm temperatures, stripped moisture from the soil.

The impact is already showing. Just 30% of the US winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent as of Sunday in USDA data, the lowest rating since 2023. Roughly half of the crop in Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas — the region’s largest producers — is categorized as poor to very poor, Rippey said, indicating a high risk of yield losses.

The drought is also colliding with higher input costs. Fertilizer prices have soared following attacks on Iran by the US and Israel, prompting some farmers to cut back on applications. US Representative Frank Lucas, a Republican from Oklahoma, said he chose not to purchase nitrogen fertilizer for his wheat fields in the western part of the state.

“I didn’t have enough moisture — it wouldn’t have done any good,’’ Lucas said. “Number two, I’m not even sure what the cost would be.”

Farmers were under economic pressure even before the drought threatened yields. Still, ample grain supplies elsewhere in the world could limit any price gains. In the Plains, “moisture is desperately needed,” Rippey said, adding that rainfall in the coming weeks will likely determine whether the winter wheat crop will be “made or broken for 2026.” The drought, while unlikely to impact meat prices, will also lend little reprieve to record beef costs if it stalls the rebuilding of the US cattle herd.

Relief may not arrive soon enough. Although the drying La Niña pattern has ended, heavy rains may not return to the central US until its warming counterpart, El Niño, develops later this summer. By then, the winter wheat harvest and planting window could be closing.

Between now and late July, outlooks from the US Climate Prediction Center call for an expansion of drought in eastern Colorado and western Kansas, with below-average rainfall in some areas and unseasonably warm temperatures. That warmth can “induce more atmospheric demand” for moisture, said Eric Hunt, an agricultural meteorologist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “Evapotranspiration is higher, meaning that you could lose more water out of the ground.”

Dry terrain has contributed to a spate of destructive wildfires across the southern Plains, burning roughly 1 million acres of hayfields and pasture by the end of March. The losses are further dimming prospects for rebuilding the US cattle herd, which has already shrunk to a 75-year low as farmers opt to sell animals for slaughter instead of keeping them for breeding.

Early in the year, the number of heifers — young female cows that have yet to give birth — auctioned into the meat supply chain began to fall, said Altin Kalo, head economist at Steiner Consulting. That data point can signal future breeding plans, Kalo added, but as drought conditions deepened in recent weeks, auction volumes climbed back toward levels seen over the past two years.

“Drought just sets everything back,” said Ben Smith, a field operations manager with the nonprofit Farm Rescue. “That’s when guys start to have to make tough decisions on liquidating some of their herd if they can’t afford to buy feed or can’t find alternative feed.”

Farm Rescue has delivered donated hay to replace supplies lost to fires in Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska, Smith said. Two major trade associations, Nebraska Cattlemen and Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association, have also opened mutual aid funds to support affected ranchers.

“Rebuilding, whether it’s corrals or fences, takes time and takes money,” said Nebraska Cattlemen President Craig Uden, noting that thousands of miles of pasture fencing were destroyed in the blazes. Replacement costs usually exceed $10,000 per mile, cutting into ranchers’ incomes even if they don’t show up in consumer prices. “What people really need is seed, hay, tillers and equipment to help move cattle, because a lot of them will have to find new homes for the summer.”