Fear of larger wars in East Africa

This is one of my major worries for 2026 and beyond.  The ethnic and tribal conflict in Ethiopia is not finished, and it killed 700,000 people not long ago.  Ethiopia still covets sea access and Eritrea, which at times in the past belong to Ethiopia anyway.  Israel has recognized Somaliland, with a variety of other countries, including the United States, likely to follow.  For Somalia, that is akin to an act of war because it dismembers what they perceive as their country.  Somalia and Ethiopia still have troubles.  Ethiopia and Egypt have a major dispute over water rights, a possible casus belli.

The United States, and thus other countries too, might recognize South Yemen, in an attempt to better control Gulf access.  This is not nominally Africa but it is a very real African issue as well.

Saudi and UAE are no longer close in a manner that enable them to collectively bring order to the area.  More generally, political property rights are weak in the region, many borders are contested, and there is no generally acknowledged legitimate referee.  UAE is seeking to play a larger role, perhaps with a good deal of hubris.  Trump is Trump.

The battles in the Sudans may be spiraling into a larger regional conflict.  There is also Rwanda and the Congo region.

So I am worried.

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